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بررسی تأثیر ترکیب کاربری سرزمین و سنجههای ساختار سیمای سرزمین در مدلسازی کیفیت آب رودخانهها (مطالعه موردی: استان اردبیل) | ||
نشریه مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست دانشگاه تبریز | ||
مقاله 9، دوره 51.2، شماره 103، تیر 1400، صفحه 83-93 اصل مقاله (1.42 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله کامل پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/jcee.2019.9091 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
مهدی عالی پور اردی؛ بهمن جباریان* | ||
گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج | ||
چکیده | ||
در دهههای اخیر، کیفیت آب رودخانهها تحت تأثیر عوامل متعددی که ناشی از منابع آلودگی نقطهای و غیر نقطهای میباشد، قرار گرفته است. کاربریهای سرزمین و تغییرات حاصله از آنها در طول زمان، بیشترین تأثیر را بر روی کیفیت آب رودخانهها داشتهاند. بهجز کاربری سرزمین، تحلیل ناهمگونی مکانی و ساختاری سیمای سرزمین نیز میتواند در بیان و تحلیل تغییرات کیفیت آب مؤثر باشد. در مطالعه حاضر، بهمنظور مدلسازی روابط بین ویژگی ترکیب (درصدکاربری سرزمین) و سنجههای ساختار سیمای سرزمین با تغییرات کیفیت آب در استان اردبیل از مدلسازی رگرسیون چند متغیره گامبهگام استفاده شد. آزمون شاپیرو در سطح معناداری 05/0 جهت بررسی نرمال بودن دادههای کیفیت آب مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. سپس از آزمون همبستگی اسپیرمن جهت بررسی ارتباط بین متغیرها استفاده شد.پس از برازش مدل ها، آزمون آکائیکه جهت تعیین بهینهترین مدل برای هر پارامتر کیفیت آب مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که سنجههای سیمای سرزمین توانستهاند بیش از 80 درصد واریانس را در تغییرات متغیرهای کیفیت آب در رودخانه های مورد مطالعه در استان اردبیل نشان دهند. همچنین کاربریهای کشاورزی، شهری و دیم هم در متغیرهای ویژگی ترکیب (درصد) کاربری سرزمین و هم سنجههای ساختار سیمای سرزمین بیشترین تأثیر را در کیفیت آب رودخانهها داشتهاند. در نهایت برای صحتسنجی مدلها، از یازده سنجه شامل سنجههای برآورد خطای مطلق مدل، تحلیل کارایی مدل و خطای نسبی مدل استفاده شده است که بر اساس نتایج آن، مدلهای ابداعی برای هریک از متغیر کیفیت آب صحت قابل قبولی از خود نشان دادند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
کیفیت آب رودخانه؛ سنجههای سیمای سرزمین؛ ویژگی ساختار سیمای سرزمین؛ کاربری سرزمین؛ رگرسیون خطی چندمتغیره | ||
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مراجع | ||
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