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مدلسازی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد گندم آبی تحت شرایط محدودیت آب در خراسان رضوی | ||
دانش کشاورزی وتولید پایدار | ||
مقاله 12، دوره 28، شماره 3، مهر 1397، صفحه 155-169 اصل مقاله (838.02 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
نویسندگان | ||
زهرا زینلی مبارکه؛ رضا دیهیم فرد* ؛ جعفر کامبوزیا | ||
گروه کشاورزی اکولوژیک، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
به دلیل افزایش جمعیت جهانی به همراه کاهش سطح زمینهای بارور و منابع آب، ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر بهرهوری کشاورزی به طور ویژهای دارای اهمیت میباشد. به همین منظور این تحقیق در شش شهرستان از استان خراسان رضوی ( قوچان، گناباد، مشهد، سبزوار، تربتحیدریه و تربتجام) انجام شد. ابتدا اقلیم آینده (سال 2050) با استفاده از دادههای اقلیمی بلندمدت در دوره پایه (2010-1980) و با روش ارائه شده توسطAgMIP، تحت دو سناریوی اقلیمی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 شبیهسازی شد. مدل گردش عمومی مورد استفاده در این تحقیق MPI-ESM-MRبود و به منظور شبیهسازی رشد و عملکرد گندم از مدل APSIM-Wheat در شرایط محدودیت آب استفاده شد. نتایج شبیهسازیها نشان دادند که میانگین تغییرات دمای طول فصل رشد در منطقه مورد مطالعه در آینده نسبت به پایه (79/9 درجه سانتیگراد) افزایشی بوده و تحت هر دو RCP به ترتیب برابر با 41/1 و 83/1 درجه سانتیگراد میباشد. همچنین نتایج نشان دادند که در آینده طول دوره رشد بین 13 تا 6/24 روز و فاصله زمانی کاشت تا گلدهی بین 2/13 تا 4/30 روز کاهش یافته و از سوی دیگر طول دوره پر شدن دانه بین 2/0 تا 4/4 روز افزایش مییابد. در این تحقیق اثرات متقابل دما و CO2 و مجموع تغییرات رشد و نموی گندم آبی موجب تغییرات مثبت عمکرد دانه در آینده در بیشتر شهرستانهای مورد بررسی (1 تا 9/12 درصد) و کاهش عملکرد در تربتحیدریه (1/4- درصد) شد. یافتههای این تحقیق همچنین نشان دادند تغییر تاریخ کاشت در آینده موجب افزایش بیشتر عملکرد خواهد شد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
تاریخ کاشت؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ عملکرد دانه؛ Agmip؛ APSIM-Wheat؛ مدل سازی | ||
مراجع | ||
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