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ارزیابی عملکرد و نیاز آبی ذرت دانهای در واکنش به تغییر تاریخ کشت تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم در استان کرمانشاه | ||
دانش کشاورزی وتولید پایدار | ||
مقاله 12، دوره 27، شماره 3، مهر 1396، صفحه 172-186 اصل مقاله (834.82 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
نویسندگان | ||
حامد عینی نرگسه1؛ سجاد رحیمی مقدم2؛ رضا دیهیم فرد* 2؛ علی مختصی بیدگلی1 | ||
1گروه زراعت، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس | ||
2گروه کشاورزی اکولوژیک، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی | ||
چکیده | ||
بهمنظور بررسی عملکرد و نیاز آبی ذرت دانهای در تاریخ کشتهای مختلف تحت دو سناریوی انتشار گازهای گلخانهای در سه شهرستان استان کرمانشاه (کرمانشاه، کنگاور و اسلامآباد غرب )، از مدل APSIM و برای پیشبینی پارامترهای اقلیمی نیز از روش ارایه شده توسط AgMIP استفاده شد. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که از دلایل افت شدید عملکرد میتوان به افزایش دما در طول فصل رشد (7/15 درصد)، کاهش طول فصل رشد (7/4 درصد) و احتمالاً برخورد زمان گلدهی با وقوع دماهای آستانه اشاره کرد. نیاز آبی ذرت نیز در همه مناطق، سناریوها و تاریخهای کاشت بهطور میانگین 14 درصد نسبت به دوره پایه افزایش خواهد یافت که از دلایل این امر میتوان به افزایش دما (7/15 درصد) اشاره نمود. در تاریخ کاشت مرسوم (15 اردیبهشت) در مناطق مورد بررسی، نیاز آبی ذرت تحت هر دو سناریو 12 درصد نسبت به دوره پایه افزایش نشان داد، در حالی که در تاریخ کاشتهای زودتر و دیرتر نیاز آبی ذرت به ترتیب 15 و 7 درصد افزایش یافت. با توجه به بارش تجمعی بیشتر در طول فصل رشد (27/54 میلیمتر) در کشتهای زودهنگام (16 فروردین و 31 فروردین) و همچنین افت عملکرد کمتر در مقایسه با دیگر تاریخهای کشت (56 درصد)، میتوان از کشت زودهنگام به عنوان راهکار سازگاری برای استفاده از بارشهای فصلی و دستیابی به عملکرد قابل قبول استفاده کرد. نتایج نشان داد در بین مناطق مورد مطالعه، مناسبترین منطقه کشت ذرت از نظر عملکرد دانه و نیاز آبیاری اسلام آباد غرب (8/4221 کیلوگرم در هکتار) و کرمانشاه (2/1489 میلیمتر) بودند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
تبخیر؛ تعرق؛ سناریوی اقلیمی؛ عملکرد دانه؛ مدل رشدی؛ Agmip | ||
مراجع | ||
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