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شبیهسازی بیلان آب حوضه آبریز ارس بر اساس مدل اقلیمی CNRM-CM6 | ||
هیدروژئومورفولوژی | ||
دوره 12، شماره 42، فروردین 1404، صفحه 117-99 اصل مقاله (1.99 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/hyd.2024.63758.1759 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
مهناز صابر1؛ برومند صلاحی* 2؛ رقیه ملکی مرشت1 | ||
1پژوهشگر پسادکتری آب و هواشناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی | ||
2استاد آب و هواشناسی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل. | ||
چکیده | ||
در این پژوهش از مدل SWAT برای شبیهسازی شرایط هیدرولوژیکی حوضه رودخانه ارس در دوره آینده استفاده گردید. واسنجی مدل بر اساس داده سالهای 2006-1987 و اعتبارسنجی آن در سالهای 2014-2007 با الگوریتم SUFI2 انجام و مدل SWAT بر اساس دبی جریان ماهانه ایستگاه هیدرومتری منتخب کالیبره شد. بعد از انتخاب پارامترهای بهینه و با اجرای شبیهسازی در 350 دور شبیهساز، مقادیر معیارهای ارزیابی در دوره واسنجی و در مرحله اعتبارسنجی بهدست آمد. برای ارزیابی تغییرات بیلان آب حوضه تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم از دادههای ریزگردانیشده مدل اقلیمی CNRM-CM6 در دوره تاریخی (1985-2014) و دوره آینده (2025-2100) تحت سناریوی SSP5-8.5 بهعنوان داده ورودی به مدل SWAT استفاده شد. یافتهها نشان داد ET حوضه سهم زیادی از بارش 272 میلیمتری دوره تاریخی و 351 میلیمتری دوره آینده حوضه را به خود اختصاص داده و میزان نفوذ و جریان جانبی که برای تغذیه منابع زیرزمینی و سطحی ضروری هستند، بسیار اندک است. همچنین برحسب کاربری اراضی، کمینه ET حوضه در کاربری مراتع خوب به دست آمد. هر چند در دوره آینده بارش سالانه به میزان 79 میلیمتر نسبت به دوره تاریخی بیشتر خواهد بود ولی بخش عمدهای از آن صرف تبخیر و تعرق در ماههای می تا جولای خواهد شد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
بیلان آب؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ SUFI2؛ SWAT CUP؛ حوضه رودخانه ارس | ||
مراجع | ||
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