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اعتبارسنجی رادار داپلر در برآورد بارشهای شدید روزانه در حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه | ||
هیدروژئومورفولوژی | ||
دوره 10، شماره 34، اردیبهشت 1402، صفحه 122-101 اصل مقاله (2.17 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/hyd.2023.54058.1661 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
هاشم رستم زاده* 1؛ میرکامل حسینی2؛ سعید جهانبخش اصل3؛ محمد امیدفر4 | ||
1دانشیارگروه آموزشی آب و هواشناسی، دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز | ||
2دانشجوی دکتری اقلیمشناسی، دانشکده برنامهریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه، تبریز، تبریز، ایران | ||
3استاد گروه اقلیمشناسی، دانشکده برنامهریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران | ||
4رئیس پیشبینی اداره کل هواشناسی استان آذربایجان شرقی، تبریز، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
هدف از این تحقیق، بررسی میزان دقت دادههای بارشهای شدید (بارشهای 25 میلیمتر به بالا) رادار هواشناسی تبریز در یک دوره 8 ساله (2021-2014) و مقایسه آنها با دادههای ایستگاهای سینوپتیک در حوضه دریاچه ارومیه میباشد. برای مقایسه و ارزیابی بین دادههای ایستگاههای هواشناسی و رادار از آمارههایی نظیر، ضریب همبستگی (R) و مجذور میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE)،... استفاده شد. مقایسه نقشههای حاصل از رادار داپلر و ایستگاههای سینوپتیک نشان داد که توزیع فضایی بارش حاصل از دو پایگاه داده یکسان نبوده و نواحی کم بارش و پربارش منطبق بر یکدیگر نیستند، به طوری که ضریب همبستگی بین بارش رادار و مشاهده شده 25/0 می-باشد. همچنین نتایج آزمون کلموگروف- اسمیرنوف نشان داد که با توجه به اینکه p-value حاصل شده (000/0) عددی کوچکتر از مقدار خطای آزمون (05/0) است، پس اختلاف بین دادههای بارش رادار و مشاهدات زمینی معنیدار است. در واقع مقادیر بارش ثبت شده در ایستگاههای زمینی و رادار نتیجه واحدی را ارائه نمیدهند و هر دو جامعه آماری از توزیع یکنواختی برخوردار نیستند بنابراین دادههای بارش رادار نمیتواند به جای دادههای بارش ایستگاهها استفاده شود. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آزمون آماری؛ بارش شدید؛ رادار هواشناسی تبریز؛ حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه | ||
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مراجع | ||
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