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ارزیابی و مقایسه مدل AquaCrop و مدلهای هوشمند جهت پیشبینی عملکرد گندم (مطالعه موردی: شهرستانهای میاندوآب و مهاباد) | ||
دانش آب و خاک | ||
مقاله 1، دوره 34، شماره 1، فروردین 1403، صفحه 1-18 اصل مقاله (1.19 M) | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/ws.2022.52336.2479 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
میلاد شرفی1؛ جواد بهمنش* 2؛ وحید رضاوردی نژاد2؛ سعید صمدیان فرد3 | ||
1گروه مهندسی آب- دانشگاه ارومیه | ||
2استاد، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه | ||
3دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز | ||
چکیده | ||
امروزه بیش از هر زمان دیگری افزایش تولید محصولات استراتژیک مانند گندم نیاز به استفاده صحیح از منابع آب دارد. مدل AquaCrop یکی از مدلهای پویا و کاربرپسند بوده که توسط سازمان خواروبار جهانی فائو توسعه داده شده است. اما این مدل به پارامترهای ورودی نسبتاً زیادی نیاز داشته و در صورت وجود سناریوهای متعدد، مدلی وقتگیر میباشد. در تحقیق حاضر برای رفع این مشکل و توسعه مدلی با دادههای ورودی کمتر، با استفاده از مدل-های هوشمند ANN، SVR و SVR-FFA و با ایجاد 440 سناریو در 2 مزرعه عملکرد مدلAquaCrop مقایسه گردید. مزارع 99WestW2 و WestW10 بهترتیب در شهرستانهای میاندوآب و مهاباد واقع گردیده و عملکرد (ton ha-1) 588/6 و (ton ha-1) 05/5 را داشتهاند. نتایج اجرای مدلها با استفاده از 5 معیار مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که برای هر دو مزرعه 99WestW2 و WestW10 مدل SVR-FFA3 توانست کمترین میزان خطا را داشته باشد، بهطوریکه برای شاخص عملکرد مقدار RMSE برای مزارع مذکور بهترتیب (ton ha-1) 033/0 و (ton ha-1) 069/0 بهدست آمد. مدلهای SVR و ANN نیز پس از مدل SVR-FFA توانستند عملکرد مناسبی را از خود نشان دهند. در نهایت مدلهای هوشمند SVR-FFA، SVRو ANN با وجود کمترین تعداد ورودی قادر به پیشبینی مقادیر عملکرد در کمترین زمان و با بیشترین دقت بودهاند. در هر حال، نتایج نشان داد هر چه ورودیهای مدلها کمتر شود، پیشبینی مدلها نیز ضعیفتر خواهد بود.. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آکواکراپ؛ شبیه سازی؛ کشاورزی پایدار؛ گندم؛ عملکرد محصول | ||
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