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تعیین پیشران های کلیدی موثر بر زیست پذیری شهری با رویکرد آینده پژوهی (مطالعه موردی: شهر کاشان) | ||
جغرافیا و برنامهریزی | ||
مقاله 3، دوره 25، شماره 76، تیر 1400، صفحه 27-41 اصل مقاله (930.21 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/gp.2021.13132 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
امیر اشنویی نوش آبادی* 1؛ مهشید محمد ابراهیمی2 | ||
1استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه لرستان | ||
2مربی، عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه پیام نور تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
در سالهای اخیر در کنار توجه ویژه به دیدگاههای مرتبط با توسعه پایدار و پایداری شهری، نگرش بهبود کیفیت زندگی که از ملزومات زیستپذیری شهرهاست، جایگاه خود را در ادبیات برنامهریزی شهری باز کرده است. هدف مقاله حاضر جستجوی پیشرانهای اصلی تأثیرگذار بر زیستپذیری شهری است. این مقاله یکی از مستعدترین شهرهای مرکزی کشور یعنی شهر کاشان را به عنوان محدوده پژوهش انتخاب نموده است. روش این تحقیق از نوع تحقیقات توصیفی- تحلیلی و گردآوری اطلاعات آن به صورت «اسنادی و میدانی» است که از پرسشنامه محقق ساخته در آن استفاده شد و رویکرد آن مبتنی بر آیندهپژوهی و افق آن سال 1415 است. جامعه آماری 15 نفر از خبرگان و متخصصان شهری بودهاند. به منظور سنجش و تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات از نرم افزارهای آینده پژوهی شامل میکمک و سناریو ویزارد استفاده شده است. نتایج این تحقیق بیانگر آن است که 5 سناریوی با ترکیبهای متفاوتی از سه وضعیت، مطلوب، ایستا و بحرانی که احتمال وقوع در زیستپذیری شهر کاشان را دارند که 1/51 درصد وضعیت بحرانی، 8/17 درصد در حالت ایستا و 1/31 درصد وضعیت مطلوب صفحه سناریو را به خود اختصاص داده است و احتمال وقوع رخدادهای منفی (بحرانی) بیشتر از رخدادهای مثبت (مطلوب) میباشد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
زیست پذیری؛ آینده پژوهی؛ سناریونویسی؛ شهر کاشان | ||
مراجع | ||
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