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کاربرد نظریه بازیها در حل مناقشه آبی حوضه دریاچه ارومیه | ||
دانش آب و خاک | ||
مقاله 11، دوره 32، شماره 4، دی 1401، صفحه 147-168 اصل مقاله (517.87 K) | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/ws.2021.12353 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
مصطفی بنی طالبی دهکردی* 1؛ حسین رضایی2 | ||
1دانشجوی دکترای مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه | ||
2استاد گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه | ||
چکیده | ||
تاکنون تحقیقات مختلفی در مورد علل خشکی دریاچه و راههای احیای این ثروت ملی انجام شده است. در این تحقیق با استفاده از نظریه بازیها و تعریف پنج سناریو، مناقشه آبی حوضه دریاچه ارومیه برای سال آبی 95-94 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. بدین منظور، درآمد بخش کشاورزی و آبی که به دریاچه میریزد، بهعنوان دو بازیکن معرفی شدند. در این بازی غیر همکارانه، حوضه اجازه برداشت بیش از 100% از منابع آب تجدید پذیر طبیعی خود را نداشته و حداقل 3.5 میلیارد مترمکعب آب به دریاچه تخصیص داده شده است. علاوه بر این، اینگونه فرض شد که درآمد بخش کشاورزی، نباید از درآمد فعلی آن در سال آبی موردمطالعه کمتر شود. بر مبنای فرضیات فوق، سناریو 4 که در آن زراعت آبی حذف شده و کل مساحت اراضی زراعی به کشت دیم اختصاص یافته و علاوه بر آن کل مساحت باغات آبی تحت پوشش آبیاری قطرهای قرار گرفته است، نتایج مطلوبتری نسبت به بقیه سناریوها در پی داشت. در نقطه تعادل محاسبهشده در سناریو 4، حوضه با مصرف26.78% از آب تجدید پذیر طبیعی خود برای مصارف کشاورزی، شرب و صنعت، 4235 میلیون مترمکعب آب به دریاچه تخصیص داده است. علاوه بر این درآمد بخش کشاورزی نیز در نقطه تعادل محاسبهشده، 19% بیشتر از حالت فعلی بوده است. در این نقطه تعادل، به دلیل حذف زراعت آبی، هزینههای جاری کاهش یافته و میتواند با اقبال عمومی از جانب کشاورزان روبرو شود. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آب تجدید پذیر؛ حوضه دریاچه ارومیه؛ سناریو؛ نظریه بازیها؛ نقطه تعادل | ||
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