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تحلیل شدت تصادفات برونشهری با استفاده از دادهکاوی مکانمند مطالعه موردی: محور قدیم قزوین- لوشان | ||
نشریه مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست دانشگاه تبریز | ||
مقاله 8، دوره 51.4، شماره 105، دی 1400، صفحه 81-95 اصل مقاله (1.55 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله کامل پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/jcee.2020.31126.1746 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
میثم عفتی* 1؛ حمید بهبهانی2؛ سمانه مرتضایی2؛ مهیار واحدی ساحلی3 | ||
1گروه مهندسی عمران- راه و ترابری، دانشکده فنی، دانشگاه گیلان | ||
2گروه راه و ترابری، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران | ||
3گروه مهندسی عمران (راه و ترابری)، دانشکده فنی، دانشگاه گیلان | ||
چکیده | ||
مدلسازی شدت تصادفات به منظور شناسایی پارامترهای مؤثر بر آن در راه های برون شهری و همچنین تحلیل مکانی تصادفات رخ داده میتواند موجبات کاهش تصادفات جادهای یک محور برونشهری را فراهم آورد. هدف این تحقیق ارائه مدلی مبتنی بر سیستمهای اطلاعات مکانی (GIS) و داده کاوی به روش درخت طبقه بندی و رگرسیون جهت تحلیل شدت تصادفات و تعیین عوامل مؤثر بر آن در راه های اصلی دوخطه برون شهری است. روش پیشنهادی در محور قدیم قزوین- لوشان مورد ارزیابی و آزمون قرار میگیرد. در این راستا به منظور بررسی توزیع مکانی تصادفات در محور مورد مطالعه طی دوره 6 ساله 1390 تا 1395 شمسی، از توابع خودهمبستگی مکانی گتیس- ارد جی استار (Getis-Ord Gi) و تراکم کرنل استفاده شده است. خروجی تحلیلهای مکانی نشان داد، که تمرکز تصادفات در بخش اعظمی از قوس های افقی محور مورد مطالعه بیشتر می باشد. باتوجه به این دستاورد در فاز بعدی تحقیق به منظور بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر شدت تصادفات، از مدل داده کاوی درخت طبقه بندی و رگرسیون بر روی تصادفات رخداده در کل محور و به طور خاص تصادفات رخ داده در قوسهای افقی استفاده گردید. نتایج حاکی از آن بود که مهمترین عوامل مؤثر بر افزایش شدت تصادفات در محور مورد مطالعه، دو متغیر نوع تصادفات و نحوه برخورد با ضرایب اهمیت متغیرهای مستقل به ترتیب 100 و 14/6 درصد برای کل محور و 100 و 22/8 درصد برای قوس های افقی هستند. بررسی اهمیت نسبی سایر متغیرهای مدل پیشنهادی نشان داد که نوع راه و توپوگرافی منطقه از جمله عوامل مؤثر در افزایش تصادفات با شدت خسارتی در محور قدیم قزوین- لوشان می باشد. علاوه بر این نتایج مدلسازی بر روی تصادفات رخ داده در قوس های افقی نیز حاکی از این بود که مقاطع دارای خط-کشی ممتد، بیش از سایر مقاطع، مستعد وقوع تصادفات فوتی و جرحی شدید هستند. این تحقیق نشان داد که تلفیق توابع مکانمند GIS با تحلیلهای ناپارامتریک دادهکاوی که قابلیت مدلسازی توأمان دادههای کمی و کیفی را هم زمان دارا میباشد، در تعیین عوامل مؤثر بر افزایش شدت تصادفات و تصمیمگیری بهمنظور ارتقاء سطح ایمنی در محورهای برونشهری کارا و مؤثر است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
شدت تصادفات؛ دادهکاوی؛ تحلیل مکانی؛ درخت طبقهبندی و رگرسیون؛ قوسهای افقی | ||
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مراجع | ||
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