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Scenario-Based Assessment of Future Urban Growth in Alton Kopri, Iraq: An Integrated Cellular Automata and Logistic Regression Approach | ||
| جغرافیا و برنامهریزی | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 18 خرداد 1405 | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/gp.2026.71446.3513 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| جنار Saleh Qader1؛ صدرا کریم زاده* 1؛ فیروز Jafari2؛ قیصار محمود عجاج3 | ||
| 1گروه سنجش از دور و GIS، دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز | ||
| 2گروه برنامه ریزی شهری و منطقه ای، دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز | ||
| 3گروه نقشه برداری، دانشکده فنی کرکوک، دانشگاه فنی شمال کرکوک | ||
| چکیده | ||
| The paper is a simulation of the spatiotemporal post-conflict urban growth of a strategic transit hub, Alton Kopri, in the northern region of Iraq, using an integrated Cellular Automata and Logistic regression model (CA-LR). Urbanization with high rates of urban growth after geopolitical stabilization in 2017 has increased pressure on local agricultural lands and riparian ecosystems. We therefore counted a massive increase in the urban footprint, which grew by 353% overall between 2003 and 2024 using multi-temporal Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery, with an urban footprint presence growing from 8.78 to 39.79 km2. The Logistic Regression model found the Distance to Roads (β = -3.84) and Elevation (β=-6.87) as the main spatial factors, which supports the topographically limited, transportation-based growth trend. The simulation model had excellent validation (Kappa = 0.83; overall LULC accuracy of above 96%). By 2030, three scenarios were projected that included Business as Usual (BAU), River Protection, and Rapid Economic Recovery. Predictions in BAU setting include doubling urban space, which is characterized by ribbon sprawl along the Kirkuk-Erbil highway. It is interesting to note that the River Protection scenario, although successful in preserving the Little Zab ecosystem, led to the creation of a paradoxically greater total urban area (68.282 km2) by moving development into less dense peripheral agricultural areas. These results offer vital decision support indicators to local planners that the densification policy should accompany the policy of conservation of the environment in order to reduce unwanted urban sprawl. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Urban Growth Simulation؛ Cellular Automata (CA)؛ Logistic Regression (LR)؛ Scenario-Based Assessment؛ Alton Kopri | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 50 |
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