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بررسی روند خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی با استفاده از مدل SWAT (مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبریز قطورچای) | ||
| نشریه مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست | ||
| مقاله 6، دوره 56، شماره 122، 1405، صفحه 73-83 اصل مقاله (3.75 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله کامل پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/ceej.2025.65202.2409 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مهسا محمدحسین زاده؛ حسین رضایی* | ||
| گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تغییر اقلیم و افزایش مدت خشکسالیها سبب افزایش سطح اراضی بایر و کاهش پوشش گیاهی میگردد، بنابراین احتمال وقوع رخدادهای سیلابی و خسارتهای جانی و مالی افزایش مییابد. در این تحقیق عملکرد هیدرولوژیکی حوضه آبریز قطورچای با دادههای 9 ایستگاه بارانسنجی و یک ایستگاه سینوپتیک (Synoptic station) دوره 29 ساله (1987-2018)جهت تحلیل پدیده خشکسالی هیدرولیکی از مدل آب و خاک SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) استفاده شده است. پارامترهای حساس مدل بهکمک الگوریتم SUFI2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting) در نرمافزار SWAT CUP در 7 ایستگاه هیدرومتری مشخص گردید. نتایج نشان داد مقادیر ضریب کارایی نش ساتکلیف (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) در دورههای واسنجی در محدوده 85/0-64/0 و اعتبارسنجی 7/0-50/0در ایستگاههای هیدرومتری متغییر بوده و بیانگر کارایی خوب مدل SWAT میباشد سپس شاخص خشکسالی هیدرولیکی SDI (Standardized Precipitation Index) درکل زیرحوضهها (8 زیرحوضه فاقد ایستگاه هیدرومتری و 7 زیرحوضه دارای دادههای مشاهدهای) و شاخص خشکسالی هواشناسی SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) نیز در زیرحوضهها تعیین گردید. نتایج بررسی شاخصها نشان داد که در زیرحوضههای آبریز بالادست همسویی شاخصهای SPI و SDI (در زیرحوضههای 3، 14، 15، 7، 8) مشاهده گردید و در دیگر زیرحوضهها همسویی کمتری بین شاخصها وجود داشته که ناشی از برداشت آب سطحی در طول مسیر تا نقطه خروجی و تغییر کاربری اراضی بوده است. بنابراین در صورت فقدان دادهها برای محاسبه شاخصهای خشکسالی میتوان از مدلSWAT پیشبینیها و خلاء آماری را شبیهسازی نموده و برای ارزیابی علل تغییرات کاربری اراضی از مقایسه دو شاخص استفاده نمود. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| حوضه آبریز قطورچای؛ SWAT؛ الگوریتم SUFI2؛ تحلیل عدم قطعیت؛ شاخص خشکسالی SPI و SDI | ||
| مراجع | ||
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