دانشگاه تبریز
فهرست نشریات دارای اعتبار وزارت علوم، تحقیقات و فناوری
پایگاه استنادی علوم جهان اسلام (ISC)

 آمار

تعداد نشریات45
تعداد شماره‌ها1,414
تعداد مقالات17,370
تعداد مشاهده مقاله56,013,388
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله18,234,069
Ayoade, Abayomi, Ogunmiloro, Oluwatayo, Oyedepo, Taiye. (1403). Analysis of the effect of isolation on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling approach (R1). سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 13(1), 123-141. doi: 10.22034/cmde.2024.58127.2451
Abayomi Ayotunde Ayoade; Oluwatayo Micheal Ogunmiloro; Taiye Oyedepo. "Analysis of the effect of isolation on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling approach (R1)". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 13, 1, 1403, 123-141. doi: 10.22034/cmde.2024.58127.2451
Ayoade, Abayomi, Ogunmiloro, Oluwatayo, Oyedepo, Taiye. (1403). 'Analysis of the effect of isolation on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling approach (R1)', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 13(1), pp. 123-141. doi: 10.22034/cmde.2024.58127.2451
Ayoade, Abayomi, Ogunmiloro, Oluwatayo, Oyedepo, Taiye. Analysis of the effect of isolation on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling approach (R1). سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1403; 13(1): 123-141. doi: 10.22034/cmde.2024.58127.2451

Analysis of the effect of isolation on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling approach (R1)

Computational Methods for Differential Equations
مقاله 9، دوره 13، شماره 1، فروردین 2025، صفحه 123-141    اصل مقاله (501.7 K)
نوع مقاله: Research Paper
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/cmde.2024.58127.2451
نویسندگان
Abayomi Ayotunde Ayoade* 1؛ Oluwatayo Micheal Ogunmiloro2؛ Taiye Oyedepo3
1Department of Mathematics, University of Lagos, Lagos, Lagos State, Nigeria.
2Department of Mathematics, Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria.
3Department of Applied Sciences, Federal College of Dental Technology and Therapy, Enugu, Enugu State, Nigeria.
چکیده
COVID-19 was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020, after the global cases and mortalities in more than 100 countries surpassed 100 000 and 3 000, respectively. Because of the role of isolation in disease spread and transmission, a system of differential equations were developed to analyse the effect of isolation on the dynamics of COVID-19. The validity of the model was confirmed by establishing the positivity and boundedness of its solutions. Equilibria analysis was conducted, and both zero and nonzero equilibria were obtained. The effective and basic reproductive ratios were also derived and used to analyze the stability of the equilibria. The disease-free equilibrium is stable both locally and globally if the reproduction number is less than one; otherwise, it is the disease-endemic equilibrium that is stable locally and globally. A numerical simulation was carried out to justify the theoretical results and to visualise the effects of various parameters on the dynamics of the disease. Results from the simulations indicated that COVID-19 incidence and prevalence depended majorly on the effective contact rate and per capita probability of detecting infection at the asymptomatic stage, respectively. The policy implication of the result is that disease surveillance and adequate testing are important to combat pandemics.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Pandemic؛ Reproductive ratio؛ Simulation؛ Parameters؛ Incidence؛ Prevalence
مراجع
  • [1] Y. Althobaity and M. J. Tildesley, Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia, Sci Rep., 13(1) (2023), 843.
  • [2] I. Asian, M. Demir, M. G. Wise, and S. Lenhart, Modeling COVID-19: forecasting and analysing the dynamics of the outbreak in Hubei and Turkey, Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 45(10) (2022), 6481–6494.
  • [3] A. Atangana, Modeling the spread of COVID-19 with new fractal-fractional operators: can the lockdown save mankind before vaccination?, Chaos, Soliton& Fractals, 136 (2020), 109860.
  • [4] A. A. Ayoade, T. Latunde, and R. O. Folaranmi, Comparative analysis of transmissibility and case fatality ratio of SARS, MERS and COVID-19 via a mathematical modeling approach, Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences, 13(3) (2021), 1262-1274.
  • [5] A. A. Ayoade, S. O. Agboola, and M. O. Ibrahim, Mathematical analysis of the effect of maternal immunity on the global eradication of measles, Annals.Computer Science Series, 17(1) (2019), 235-241.
  • [6] A. A. Ayoade, O. Odetunde, and B. Falodun, Modeling and analysis of the impact of vocational education on the unemployment rate in Nigeria, Application and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM), 15 (2020), 550-564.
  • [7] A. A. Ayoade and O. Aliu, COVID-19 outbreak and mitigation by movement restrictions: a mathematical assessment of economic impact on Nigerian households, Journal of Quality Measurement and Analysis, 18(2) (2022), 29-44.
  • [8] A. A. Ayoade and M. O. Ibrahim, Analyis of transmission dynamics and mitigation success of COVID-19 in Nigeria: An insight from a mathematical model, The Aligarh Bulletin of Mathematics, 41(1) (2022), 1-26.
  • [9] B. Buonomo and C. Vargas-De-Leone, Stability and bifurcation analysis of a vector-bias model of malaria transmission, Mathematical Biosciences, 242 (2013), 59-72.
  • [10] Centre for Disease Prevention Control (CDC) Human Coronavirus Types. National Centre for Immunisation and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), Division of Viral Diseases, (2020).
  • [11] Z. Cakir and H. B. Savas, A mathematical modeling approach in the spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus SARSCoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic, Electronic Journal General Medicine, (2020).
  • [12] CNN, Coronavirus news: The novel coronavirus has infected over 118 000 and killed almost 4 300 worldwide, (2020). https//www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-11-20-intl-hnk/index.html tr [accessed 26 July 2020].
  • [13] C. Castillo-Chavez and B. Song, Dynamical models of tuberculosis and their applications, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 1 (2004), 361–404.
  • [14] P. V. D. Driessche and J. Watmough, Reproduction number and sub – threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Mathematical Biosciences, 180 (2002), 29 – 48.
  • [15] A. O. Egonmwan and D. Okuonghae, Mathematical analysis of a tuberculosis model with imperfect vaccin, International Journal Biomathematics, 12 (2019), 1950073.
  • [16] S. E. Eikenberry, M. Mancuso, E. Iboi, T. Phan, E. Kostelich, Y. Kuang, and A. B. Gumel, To mask or not to mask: Modelling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic, Infectious Disease Modelling, 5 (2020), 293–08.
  • [17] N. M. Ferguson, D. Laydon, G. Nedjati-Gilani, N. Imai, K. Ainslie, M. Baguelin, S. Bhatia, A. Boonyasiri, Z. Cucunuba, G. Cuomo-Dannenburg, et al. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, London, Vol. 16, March, (2020).
  • [18] A. B. Gumel, S. Ruan, T. Day, J. Watmough, F. Brauer, P. V. D. Driessche, D. Gabrielson, C. Bowman, M. E. Alexander, S. Ardal, J. Wu, and B. M. Sahai, Modelling strategies for controlling SARS outbreaks, Proceeding of Royal Society of London (SeriesB), (2004).
  • [19] J. Hellewell, S. Abbott, A. Gimma, N. I. Bosse, C. I. Jarvis, T. W. Russell, J. D. Munday, A. J. Kucharski, W. J. Edmunds, F. Sun, et al. Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts, The Lancet Global Health, (2020).
  • [20] E. Iboi, O. O. Sharomi, C. Ngonghala, and A. B. Gumel, Mathematical modelling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 17(6) (2020), 7192-7220.
  • [21] B. Ivorra, M. R. Ferrndez, M. Vela-Prez, and A. M. Ramos, Mathematical modelling of the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) considering its particular characteristics. The case of China, Communication in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, (2020).
  • [22] J. M. Jorge M. Mendes and P. S. Coelho, The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes: A heterogeneous age-related generalisation of the SEIR model, Infectious Disease Modelling, 8(2023), 742-768.
  • [23] O. A. S. Karamzadeh, One-line proof of the AM-GM inequality, Mathematical Intelligence, 33(2) (2011).
  • [24] W. O. Kermack and A. G. McKendrick, A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics, Proceeding of Royal Society of London (Series A), 115 (1927), 700–721.
  • [25] M. A. Khan and A. Atangana, Modelling the dynamics of novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV with fractional derivative, Alexandra England. Journal,(2020).
  • [26] A. J. Kucharski, T. W. Russell, C. Diamond, Y. Liu, J. Edmunds, S. Funk, R. M. Eggo, F. Sun, M. Jit, J. D. Munday, et al. Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, (2020).
  • [27] J. P. LaSalle, Stability theory for ordinary differential equations, Journal of differential equations, 4 (1968), 57-65.
  • [28] Y. Liu, A. A. Gayle, A. Wilder-Smith, and A. Rocklv, The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus, Journal of Travel Medicine, (2020).
  • [29] T. Mabuka, N. Ncube, M. Ross, A. Silaji, W. Macharia, T. Ndemara, and T. Lemeke, The impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in South Africa, BMC Public Health volume 23 (2023), Article number: 1492.
  • [30] A. Madhusudanan, C. Iddon, M. Cevik, J. H. Naismith, and S. Fitzgerald, Non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a systematic review on environmental control measures, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical, Physical and Engineering, (2023).
  • [31] K. Mizumoto and G. Chowell, Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess Cruises Ship , Infectious Disease Modelling, (2020).
  • [32] C. N. Ngonghala, E. Iboi, S. Eikenberry, M. Scotch, C. R. MacIntyre, M. H. Bonds, and A. B. Gumel, Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel coronavirus, Mathematical Biosciences, 325 (2020), 108364.
  • [33] A. Nwankwo and O. Okuonghae, A mathematical model for the population dynamics of malaria with a temperature dependent control, Differential Equation and Dynamical System, (2019).
  • [34] C. Ohia, A. S. Bakarey, and T. Ahmad, COVID-19 and Nigeria: putting the reality in context, International Journal of Infectious Disease, 95 (2020), 279-281.
  • [35] D. Okuonghae, Backward bifurcation of an epidemiological model with saturated incidence, isolation and treatment function, Qualitative Theory and Dynamical System, (2018).
  • [36] A. Omame, D. Okuonghae, R. A. Umana, and S. C. Inyama, Analysis of a co-infection model for HPV-TB, Applied Mathematical Model, 77 (2020), 881-901.
  • [37] A. Omame, D. Okuonghae, and S. C. Inyama, A mathematical study of a model for HPV with two high risk strains, Mathmatics applied to engineering, modeling and social issues, studies in systems, decision and control, 5 (2020), 33-44.
  • [38] H. S. Rodrigues, M. T. Monteiro, and D. F. M. Torres, Sensitivity analysis in a dengue epidemiological model, (2013), Retrieved December 13, 2020.
  • [39] E. Shim, A. Tariq, W. Choi, Y. Lee, and G. Chowell, Transmission potential and severity of COVID-19 in South Korea, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, (2020).
  • [40] Z. Shuai and P. V. D. Driessche, Global Stability of Infectious disease models using Lyapunov functions, SIAM Journal of Applied Mathematics, 74 (2013), 1513 – 1532.
  • [41] S. Thota and A. A. Ayoade, On dynamical analysis of a prey-diseased predator model with refuge in prey, Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences, 15(6) (2021), 717–721.
  • [42] S. Thota, A three species ecological model with Holling Type-II functional response, Information Science Letters, 10(3) (2021), 439–444.
  • [43] S. Thota, On an ecological model of mutualisim between two species with a mortal predator, Applications and Applied Mathematics, 15(2) (2020), 1309–1322.
  • [44] S. Thota, A mathematical study on a diseased prey-predator model with predator harvesting, Asian Journal of Fuzzy and Applied Mathematics, 8(2) (2020), 16–21.
  • [45] S. Thota, Prey-predator model for Awash National Park, Oromia, Ethiopia and its stability analysis with simulations, Journal of Science and Sustainable Development, 7(2) (2019), 15–21.
  • [46] C. A. Whitfield, M. van Tongeren, Y. Han, H. Wei, S. Daniels, M. Regan, et. al. Modelling the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on workplace transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the home-delivery sector, PLoS ONE, 18(5) (2023), e0284805.
  • [47] World Health Organisation (WHO), Coronavirus, (2020). WHO https://www.who.intl/health-topics/coronavirus [accessed 05 May 2020].
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 272
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 402


سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب